Yet the withdrawal from Kherson has significantly reduced the frontage that Russian forces have to defend, while mobilization likely doubled the manpower deployed in Ukraine, allowing them to establish reserves, and rotate forces. All other factors remaining constant, the Russian military will struggle to recover offensive potential because of these challenges. Following mobilization, the Russian armed forces now have manpower, but will find themselves constrained by availability of ammunition and equipment. In its Donbas offensives over the spring and summer, the Russian military lacked manpower and compensated for this deficit with firepower. The equipment and ammunition required for such a campaign is unlikely to materialize on such short timelines. Despite recent public statements by senior Ukrainian officials that Russia could launch a major offensive in the winter-spring period, or attempt to return to Kyiv, there is little evidence of this capacity in the offing. Ukraine seeks to maintain pressure on Russian lines to prevent a consolidation of the front and avert a Russian recovery coming out of the winter.įighting over Bakhmut is a strong indicator that the Donbas is still Moscow’s minimal war aim, even if the military means at this stage do not permit much more than localized offensives. The Russian military appears to be entrenching, focused on reconstitution, while elements continue fighting for Bakhmut. This phase may be transitional and is not necessarily how the winter will play out, as Ukraine is likely eyeing opportunities for another offensive operation, but the broad contours of Russia’s and Ukraine’s strategy appear visible. The coming months could determine the course of events well into 2023. Although the tempo of fighting appears to have slowed down, in part due to the onset of winter, it remains intense along several parts of the front. Following Ukraine’s successful offensives in the fall, the Russia-Ukraine war has shifted into a transitional phase, with both sides engaged in positional battles characterized by incremental gains and attrition.
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